The Perfect Storm

There are three principle forces acting on our society today . . . or more importantly, forcing people out of that society. Three forces, that in the book, come together to form a ‘perfect storm’ which is precipitated by oil shortages.

So just what are these three ingredients for a Perfect storm -

1) Resources-

There is a very high cost in resources required to keep each individual in a high technology society. As you might expect, the principle one is Oil (energy and petrochemicals), but also include natural resources, energy, infrastructure, water, as well as waste and pollution. Requirements for these resources are many times higher for individuals in a high technology society, such as America, than for the third world nations. Many of the debates you hear on the news are based on these very resources. In the book “I Ching, Nightmares of the Cyber Wars”, oil shortages force Americans to face the question, ‘what are you doing for society to justify this high cost’.

2) Technology displacement of Americans-

Since the early twentieth century, American’s have feared the prospect of being replaced by machines in the work force. The fear of some mechanical machine being built then rolled into their work space to do their job. With the demise of factories, the fears of robots and automation had subsided considerably as people gave up their industrial jobs and moved into offices. People were confident that technology couldn’t build an ‘iron man’ robot with intelligence that could replace them. This came at a time when layoffs became the norm, so no one really noticed the impact of the personal computers.

People failed to appreciate that automation doesn’t need to physically replace them, just their intellectual functions. If you can have computers do the intellectual functions of a person’s job, then more people can do that job. Simple supply and demand. For a constant demand, if you substantially increase the supply, the price will drop. If there are lots more people able to do a job (less training and skills) then you can pay them lower wages.

Automation and computers have quietly displaced people (under employment) throughout America’s economy. Don’t believe me? Just watch the teaching profession. Teachers are going the same way that the clerk typist / secretary went in the early eighties. In ten years, teachers will be wiped off the face of the map, just as secretaries and clerk typist where. One of many such examples of technology displacement.

3) Technology Alienation-

As describe in the book, the technology gap has been widening at an unbelievable rate, that has left most Americans closer to the stone age than the vanguard of today’s technology. More and more, individuals feel left out, an alien in a world they have little understanding of . . . or control of. More people are having difficulties functioning in the world that surrounds them. And it just keeps getting worst as technology continues to leave them behind. More important, people are unable to make substantive contributions to their society . . . one of the basic needs of a human.

The Perfect Storm

Oil has the potential to bring these three forces together to form a perfect storm for America. Displacement by technology reduces the contributions individuals make to society and therefore their real value to society. While alienation from technology reduces the individual’s desire and drive to be a part of a technological society, consequently they make less effort to remain a part of society.

In the great depression, people could reasonably expect things to someday return to normal . . . that they would once again have jobs and rejoin society at large. Not so for the perfect storm. With the demise cheap oil, the real value and worth of many Americans will come to an abrupt and sudden end. Not really a part of the high technology society they live in, and unable to made real contributions to society, the high cost in resources provides a disincentive to keep them in society. So their only real alternative is strike out in the hope they can force their way back in through organized attacks.

Those three forces converge to bring the storm of war for all.

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